Southwestern California Discussion
000
FXUS66 KLOX 080007 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
407 PM PST TUE FEB 7 2012
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. IT WILL EXIT THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE WINDS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL
APPROACH ON SATURDAY FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A COOLING TREND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 MILES WEST OF
LOS ANGELES...CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS STREAMING AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE MOISTURE IS BATTLING HARD WITH THE DRYING OFFSHORE
FLOW INDUCED FROM THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. PLENTY OF RAIN IS
FALLING JUST A FEW MILES OFF THE COAST WHERE THE AIR IS MOIST ENOUGH
TO LET THE RAIN PASS THROUGH...BUT THE RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO A
WHIMPER BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT...WHILE
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE SOME RAIN BY MIDNIGHT...AMOUNTS WILL
BE DRASTICALLY UNDER PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...WITH A FEW AREAS
SEEING AROUND 0.25 INCHES. WITH SUCH PIDDLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKEWISE BY LIGHT...WITH UNDER 2 INCHES TOTAL IF ANY.
THE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE THE ONE ASPECT GOING ACCORDING TO
PLAN...BUT DID EXTEND WIND ADVISORIES A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING
TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE.
AS THE LOW MOVES AND INTENSIFIES THROUGH TOMORROW...IT WILL MOVE
INTO BAJA AND OUT OF OUR WEATHER PICTURE ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE
IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LA MTNS EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH MOIST EAST FLOW...BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW AND A QUICKLY BUILDING RIDGE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY SPOTS. WHILE
THE WINDS ON THURSDAY LOOK THE STRONGEST...THEY DO NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
LASTLY...A LARGE WEST SWELL TRAILING BEHIND OUR CURRENT SYSTEM WILL
BRING HIGH SURF TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A FEW TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE CURRENT PROJECTIONS KEEP THEM ALL TO THE EAST...THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A GLIMMER OF
SLIM HOPE FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE WAY THIS WINTER HAS BEEN GOING...WILL BE KEEPING MOST OF
THE CHIPS IN THE DRY BIN. EITHER WAY...WE LOOK TO HAVE A COOLING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND THAT SHOULD EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW
CLOUDS TO DOT THE SKY. IF THESE SYSTEMS KEEP THEIR INSIDE
TRACK...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...08/0000Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET WILL DEVELOP OVER
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
COASTAL AND VALLEY TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BETWEEN 01Z
AND 05Z. CAVU CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BETWEEN 09Z TONIGHT AND 19Z WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.
KLAX...CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 01Z AND
03Z THIS EVENING...WITH WITH A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. CAVU CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP AROUND 16Z
WEDNESDAY. EAST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS
THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT EAST
WINDS COULD LINGER INTO 15Z.
KBUR...CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z AND
04Z THIS EVENING...WITH WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z. CAVU CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 17Z
AND 19Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING
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NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion
