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854
FXUS66 KLOX 090410
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
910 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...08/225 PM.
Today marks the beginning of a warming trend as high pressure builds
in from offshore. Desert areas will reach triple digit temperatures
by mid week. Low clouds and fog are still expected across most of
the coast and some coastal valleys during the overnight and morning
hours through the end of the week. The marine layer will trend
shallower through the week with skies clearing by late morning into
early afternoon. Gusty sundowner winds are expected in western Santa
Barbara County today and Tuesday. Winds will also pick up along the
Central Coast Tuesday evening overnight into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...08/907 PM.
***UPDATE***
High temperatures rose into the upper 70s to near 90 degrees over
the valleys and interior today, with cooler 60s and 70s near the
coast. Temperatures will trend warmer Tuesday, with a significant
warm up Wednesday thanks to limited marine layer clouds and
building high pressure. Looking at possible foggy conditions at
the immediate coasts extending over the coastal waters early
Wednesday morning, and warm conditions continuing into Thursday.
Minimal changes needed to the forecast.
***From Previous Discussion***
The upper level trough that has been bringing cooler weather will
begin to shift east of the region over the next couple of days as a
ridge of high pressure builds in from offshore. With the transition
to a ridging pattern will come an increase in temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday, most notably across coastal valleys and interior
areas. Marine influences will still be felt along the coasts through
Tuesday with moderate onshore flow. Wednesday, however, the onshore
LAX-DAG pressure gradient weakens dramatically which will limit
marine influences and bring warming to coastal locations typically
kept cool by marine air. The warmest coastal valleys will see
daytime highs rising into the mid to upper 90s by Wednesday. There
remains a 20 percent chance of pushing into Heat Advisory territory
across valleys including the southern Salinas, Santa Clarita, and
western San Fernando Valleys.
Wind Advisories remain in place for northwest winds across
southwestern Santa Barbara County and down the I-5 Corridor tonight
into early Tuesday morning. Another period of strong northwest flow
Tuesday may bring a second round of Advisory-level winds for the
aforementioned areas as well as the immediate Central Coast Tuesday
afternoon and evening.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...08/227 PM.
Persistent high pressure and onshore flow will keep temperatures
relatively consistent over the second half of the week into the
weekend. Daytime high temperatures will run between 5 and 10 degrees
above seasonal normals. Marine layer clouds will recur each morning,
clearing by afternoon. Higher pressure will keep the clouds focused
over the beaches and coastal plains with limited inland extent. Mid-
level monsoonal moisture and instability is forecast to approach the
southeast boundary of the forecast area Friday and Saturday,
bringing a small (5 percent), but nonzero chance of thunderstorms
over the San Gabriel mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...09/0237Z.
At 1640Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1200 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a maximum temperature of
17 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 20-30% chance
for VFR conditions to persist for KPRB, KVNY and KBUR. Timing of
cigs may be off +/- 2 hours, and there is a 20% chance for LIFR
cigs along the Central Coast.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast, there is a 20%
chance of IFR cigs tonight. Any east wind component is expect to
be less than 6 kt.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance cigs do
not reach the TAF site. Timing of flight cat changes may be off
+/- 3 hours, with a 20% chance of IFR cigs tonight.
&&
.MARINE...08/854 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in a combination of Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through Wednesday. Moderate
confidence that Gales will continue over PZZ673 and PZZ676 through
late tonight, as the gusts are diminishing from north to south. On
Tuesday there are localized gale force gusts possible over all of
the outer waters Tuesday evening, with a 30% chance that a Gale
Warning will be needed. Otherwise, SCA winds are likely to
persist through Wednesday night, with much weaker winds Thursday
through Saturday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, SCA level wind
are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, with
seas near or above SCA levels. Lighter winds are likely during the
morning hours, then increasing again each afternoon. Thursday
through Saturday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels through Friday. The exception will be the western half
of the Santa Barbara Channel, with a SCA in effect through late
Tuesday night. Winds may diminish slightly Tuesday morning but
will quickly increase again to SCA levels. Light winds are then
expected Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.BEACHES...08/904 PM.
A long period south swell will move through the waters Today
through Thursday, with swell height building to 3 feet nearshore.
Periods will initially be 21 seconds, decreasing to 15 seconds by
Thursday. Surf is forecast to build to 3 to 6 feet with local
sets to 7 feet along south facing shores of Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties. There is a chance of more widespread surf of 4
to 7 feet with larger sets, in which case a high surf advisory
will be needed.
Hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected due to the
building surf, along with strong rip currents.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 8 AM PDT Tuesday
through Thursday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until midnight PDT tonight
for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for
zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Phillips/Fewkes
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Ciliberti
BEACHES...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Fewkes
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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