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000 FXUS66 KLOX 070633 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1033 PM PST Wed Dec 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS...06/741 PM. A weak weather disturbance will continue to move over the region tonight into Thursday, leading to some light showers along the Central Coast and the northern mountain slopes. Widespread significant cooling is then expected through Friday. Gusty northerly winds will affect portions of the area Thursday and Friday, strongest in the mountains, then shifting to a Santa Ana wind event this weekend with warming temperatures. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...06/804 PM. ***UPDATE*** A weak weather disturbance moving over the area has produced very light rain along the northern Central Coast foothills, with Rocky Butte picking up 0.08 inch of rain over the past few hours. The light rain could continue through the next hour or two. As this system moves further inland, light showers may affect the northern mountain slopes along the Kern County line later tonight into Thursday morning. Amounts there will be under 0.10 inch, and likely just a few hundredths. The main changes to the forecast package for this evening were to bump up winds across southwestern Santa Barbara County, and to issue a Wind Advisory for tonight through 8 AM Thursday. Gusts to 45 mph are expected through and below passes and canyons near Refugio and Gaviota. Winds are expected to increase significantly from the north to northeast Thursday afternoon, with potentially damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph over the Montecito Hills, through the Interstate 5 Corridor, and over the higher Ventura Mountains. Gusty winds will also affect some of the coasts and valleys, most notably in western LA County from Santa Clarita to LAX. ***From Previous Discussion*** Increasing northerly winds are expected following the frontal passage Thursday, peaking in strength Thursday night into early Friday. Per the usual north wind scenario, the strongest of these winds will be in the mountains from Santa Barbara to LA County, but with gusty winds filtering down into the valleys and some coastal areas, including even the Central Coast from San Luis Obispo south. Forecast LAX- BFL gradients are close to -7mb with 40-60kt of wind between 850-500mb and strong subsidence as well to drive those winds to the surface. A high wind watch was posted earlier for the mountain areas and expecting peak gusts to as high as 60-70 mph through the Grapevine and in the hills above Montecito. Will likely (60-80% chance) need some wind advisories for lower elevations as the winds filter down through the canyons into the valleys. Breezy north winds expected to reach West LA again early Friday morning but likely peaking at around 30 mph. Winds expected to weaken somewhat later Friday morning into afternoon but then pick up again Friday into Saturday as the north winds shift to northeast and the next Santa Ana event begins. With the shift to northeast winds will be stronger in some areas, particularly the LA/Ventura valleys and coastal areas, but weaker across SLO and Santa Barbara Counties and the I5 corridor region. Will likely (60-80% chance) need another round of wind advisories for this event Saturday and possibly for Sunday as well. The cooling trend will continue through Thursday, then level off Friday and start to climb Saturday, mainly south and west of the mountains due to compressional heating effect from the downsloping winds. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...06/213 PM. Offshore flow to varying degrees will dominate the period through the middle of next week. The weekend Santa Ana will peak Saturday but with continued gusty and still possibly advisory level winds into early Sunday afternoon in LA/Ventura Counties. Temperatures will warm up a few degrees Sunday, generally 70s across most coast/valley areas, as a ridge of high pressure encompasses most of the western third of the US. That ridge will break down Monday with weaker though still present offshore flow with similar temperatures as Sunday. A weak upper low will move into the Great Basin Tuesday and begin the process towards another Santa Ana wind event next Wednesday. At this point it doesn`t look quite as strong as the previous couple of events but there is a potential for better cold air advection due to it`s path through the Great Basin into northern AZ. && .AVIATION...07/0223Z. At 2319Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 1100 ft deep, with an inversion top at 2500 ft with a maximum temperature of 18 C. Low to moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs, moderate to high confidence in deserts. There is a 30% chance that cigs come in a category lower than forecasted, and a 30% chance of BKN008-BKN0015 cigs from 12-17Z at KBUR and KVNY. Timing of onset of cigs may be off by +/- 3 hours. KLAX...Low to moderate confidence, as onset of cigs may be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 20% chance of no cigs developing, and a 30% chance of an east wind component of 6 kts 09Z-17Z. KBUR...Low to moderate confidence, as there is a 30% chance of BKN008-BKN015 cigs from 12-17Z. && .MARINE...06/1033 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas will continue into Saturday. Tonight winds will expand across all the outer waters and last through Friday, with a 70% chance of GALE FORCE winds for the southern outer waters. SCA winds will start to fall off sometime Saturday, with a 20% chance of lasting into Sunday. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in forecast. SCA level seas are expected to last through Friday. There is a 40% chance of SCA winds tomorrow afternoon into early Friday morning, followed by a 20% chance of SCA level NE winds nearshore Friday night into Saturday morning. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in forecast. NW SCA level winds are occuring for the western Santa Barbara Channel, expanding to the western portions of all the southern inner waters by tomorrow afternoon and evening. Tomorrow night into Friday morning, there is a 30-40% chance of N to NE SCA level winds, from Malibu to Santa Monica, possibly extending south to Catalina Island. Winds will shift NE Friday night lasting through Sunday morning at least, and will be strongest during the overnight to morning hours. There is a 70-90% chance of SCA winds from Ventura to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island, and a 40-50% chance of GALE FORCE winds from Port Hueneme to Malibu. There`s a 30% chance of SCA winds extending from Orange County out to Catalina Island. High seas expected, especially during winds through Sunday. && .BEACHES...06/929 PM. Long period NW swell (18-21 seconds) will affect the coastal waters through Thursday. Expect 10 to 14 feet for Central Coast beaches, 5 to 8 feet with local sets to 9 feet for Ventura County beaches, and elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet for LA County beaches. There is a 40% chance of high surf lingering into Friday afternoon. Surf heights will be highest across west and northwest facing beaches. Due to low astronomical tides, any coastal flooding will be very minimal. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Friday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PST Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for zones 352-353-377-378. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Thursday night for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 1 PM PST Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 1 PM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Lund/Smith AVIATION...Schoenfeld MARINE...Sweet/Schoenfeld BEACHES...Sweet/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...MW/KL weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox |
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